Če koga zanima, kaj pišejo drugi: 10 dejstev, ki jih mora Zahod razumeti pred pogovorom s Putinom 🇸🇮

ZDA in njihove zaveznice že predolgo ne poslušajo naših uradnikov. Ti dnevi so minili

Avtor: Konstantin Remčukov, glavni urednik časopisa Nezavisimaja Gazeta. Je nekdanji poslanec in velja za vodilnega misleca v Rusiji.

FILE PHOTO. Russian President Vladimir Putin ©  Kristina Kormilitsyna / Sputnik

1. Putin vse temeljne odločitve sprejema osebno, na podlagi svojih sposobnosti, strokovnega znanja in občutka zgodovinske odgovornosti. Nazoren primer tega je bil predsednikov govor na ruskem zunanjem ministrstvu 14. junija, v katerem je predstavil ključne določbe prednostnih nalog ruske zunanje politike in svojo vizijo oblikovanja nove mednarodne ureditve. Večina udeležencev srečanja je pričakovala, da bo vodja države govoril največ pol ure. V praksi je Putin govoril skoraj 80 minut o tezah, ki jih je napisal sam in jih pozneje pojasnil novinarjem.

2. Naloga zagotavljanja varnosti države ter zaščite Rusov in rusko govorečih v Ukrajini, s katero se Putin sooča od leta 2014, je postala glavni eksistenčni dejavnik njegovega vladanja. Pred dokončno, mednarodno zagotovljeno ureditvijo tega vprašanja oblasti ne bo predal nikomur.

Ne more predati nadzora, dokler ne bo prišlo do končne, svetovno priznane rešitve. Vse, kar bi bilo v nasprotju s tem, bi pomenilo, da bo njegovemu nasledniku predal neurejeno kopico nerešenih problemov. Danes nihče v Putinovi okolici ne zna bolje reševati težav kot predsednik. Putin se tega zaveda in je o tem trdno prepričan.

3. Putin ne bo odstopil. V začetku septembra je učenka v Tuvi vprašala predsednika: „Kako bi preživljali dneve, če bi bili navaden človek, torej ne predsednik?“ Putin je odgovoril kratko in jasno: „To si zdaj težko predstavljam.“ To je njegovo najpomembnejše sporočilo v zadnjem času – tako za Ruse kot za tujce. Putin pravi, da pri načrtovanju svoje prihodnosti izhajate iz tega, da bom jaz v Kremlju. Na ta način je predsednik preveril resničnost za številne zahodne politike in celo ruske opozicijske aktiviste, ki so sanjali in se slepili, češ da „če je Putin, je problem; če ni Putina, ni problema“. Dejstvo je, da je predsednik tu, da ostane.

4. Zdaj je jasno, da je svet po več kot dveh letih jedrske grožnje, ki visi nad nami, pripravljen na prava pogajanja o tem vprašanju. Vendar pa obstajajo dvomi, ali bodo pogovori uspešni. Najresnejši zahodni politik – in nekdo, ki dejansko razume posledice jedrske vojne – je predsednik ZDA Joe Biden. Žal ga čez nekaj mesecev ne bo več. Niti Kamala Harris niti nekdanji predsednik Donald Trump nimata dovolj zunanjepolitičnih referenc, da bi sploh razumela pomen tega vprašanja in s tem povezane nevarnosti.

5. Zadnja leta in meseci ukrajinskega konflikta, brutalnih sankcij in radikalne preobrazbe gonilnih sil ruskega gospodarstva so jasno pokazali, da je čas, da naša domača javna in politična zavest odločno opusti prepričanje, ki ga je nekoč zasejal poljsko-ameriški mislec Zbigniew Brzezinski, da veličina Rusije temelji na njeni enotnosti z Ukrajino. Če bo država iztrgana iz vplivnega območja Moskve, se bo status Rusije kot velike sile končal, je opozoril.

Toda to je bilo takrat, to je zdaj. Danes je očitno, da je mesto Rusije v svetu zagotovljeno ne glede na stopnjo bližine katere koli države ali skupine držav. Osvoboditev od špekulativnih konstrukcij v glavah vplivnih ideologov je močan dejavnik za normalizacijo razvojnega procesa ter oceno temeljnih tveganj in priložnosti. Rusija je lahko velika in pomembna sila ne glede na stopnjo povezanosti z drugimi državami. Veličina države se meri po stopnji blaginje in možnostih njenih državljanov, po dosežkih na področju zdravstva, izobraževanja, znanosti in tehnologije.

6. Ko govorimo o ruskem gospodarstvu, ne smemo pozabiti na eno preprosto podrobnost: zvezni proračun, predložen državni dumi (parlamentu), temelji na ceni nafte 60 dolarjev za sod. Glede na napovedi bo povprečna letna cena nafte leta 2025 znašala 69 dolarjev za sod. To je zelo visoka raven konservativnosti, realizma in treznih izračunov vlade Mihaila Mišustina. Rusko gospodarstvo bo po pričakovanjih ostalo obvladljivo, hitrost razvoja pa bo zadostovala za soočanje z izzivi, s katerimi se soočamo. Očitne strukturne in tehnološke težave leta 2025 ne bodo odločilne. Na tej ravni industrijskega razvoja sta ključnega pomena uravnotežen proračun in stabilnost valute.

7. Današnji spopadi jasno kažejo, da je glavni cilj ruskih enot na terenu doseči upravne meje regij Doneck in Lugansk. Putin pri naštevanju ciljev vse pogosteje uporablja naslednje besede: osvoboditev regij Doneck in Lugansk ter Novorosija. Domnevamo lahko, da je Novorosija le del regij Herson in Zaporožje. Glavno vprašanje pri tem je kopenska povezava s Krimom. Če so moja opažanja pravilna, je mogoče sestaviti konkretnejšo sliko, na podlagi katere bomo lahko rekli, da je bila vojaška operacija končana in da so bili njeni cilji doseženi.

8. Poudariti je treba, da se je v zadnjih mesecih jasno spremenila ocena ruskega vodstva glede narave ukrajinske državnosti. To je glavna razlika v primerjavi s februarjem 2022. Danes Moskva priznava, da je precejšnje število Ukrajincev glasovalo za sedanjo vlado, se imajo za Ukrajince in si ne želijo prihodnosti z Rusijo. Na ta način Kremelj priznava ukrajinsko državo. Ko Zahod spodbuja zgodbo, da želi Moskva uničiti Ukrajino kot državo, je to glede na današnjo realnost očitno protislovje. Poleg tega prav ta pripoved omogoča zahodnim politikom, da trdijo, da se bo Rusija z uničenjem Ukrajine pomaknila še bolj v Evropo – na Poljsko in v baltske države.

9. Ko govorimo o morebitnih pogajanjih, Zahod ne omenja vprašanja legitimnosti podpisa Vladimirja Zelenskega v Putinovih očeh. Pravijo, da je to očitno, saj Zelenski s svojim „mirovnim načrtom“ leti po svetu. Zahodne partnerje svarim pred poenostavljenimi razlagami Putinovih pripomb in njegove zaskrbljenosti, da bi ukrajinsko ustavno sodišče pozneje lahko odločilo, da Zelenski ni ustrezno obnovil svojih pooblastil in da je zato njegov podpis neveljaven. „Prevarani, prevarani, prevarani s kapuco in nato ponovno prevarani“ je nekaj, kar se ne bo več ponovilo. Stopnja medsebojnega zaupanja ni niti na ničli. Zaradi popolnega nezaupanja je zdaj treba imeti polna pogajalska pooblastila v smislu razpoložljive pravne varnosti.

10. Zdi se, da je vprašanje nove mednarodne ureditve, ki državam zagotavlja enako varnost, danes enako pomembno za odločilno večino držav na svetu – tako na Zahodu kot na Vzhodu. Glavno vprašanje je, ali bo mogoče ustvariti nov mednarodni pravni okvir za mirno sobivanje. Ne pozabimo, da sta se svetova Versaillesa in Jalte-Potsdama rodila na ruševinah katastrof prve in druge svetovne vojne. Zdaj so razmere drugačne. Upajmo, da se je človeštvo nekaj naučilo.

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17 Oct, 2024 09:45

10 facts the West must understand before talking to Putin

For too long, the US and its allies haven’t listened to our officials. Those days are over

By Konstantin Remchukov, editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. A former MP, he is regarded as a leading thinker in Russia

FILE PHOTO. Russian President Vladimir Putin ©  Kristina Kormilitsyna / Sputnik

1. Putin makes all fundamental decisions personally, on the basis of his own ability, expertise, and sense of historical responsibility. A vivid example of this was the president’s speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry on June 14, in which he outlined the key provisions of Russia’s foreign policy priorities and his vision for the formation of a new international order. Most participants in the meeting expected the head of state to speak for no more than half an hour. In practice, Putin spoke for almost 80 minutes on theses he had written out himself, which he later explained to journalists.

2. The task of ensuring the security of the country and protecting Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine, which Putin has been facing since 2014, has become the main existential factor of his rule. He will not hand over power to anyone before the final, internationally guaranteed settlement of this issue.

He cannot give up control until there is a final, globally recognized solution. Anything short of this would mean handing his successor a messy bunch of unresolved problems. Today, no one in Putin’s entourage is better at solving problems than the president. He knows this and is firmly convinced of it.

3. Putin will not resign. At the beginning of September, a schoolgirl in Tuva asked the president: “How would you spend your days if you were an ordinary man, i.e. not the president?” Putin replied succinctly and clearly: “It’s hard for me to imagine that now.” This is his most important message of recent times – both for Russians and outsiders. Putin is saying that in your own future planning, proceed from the basis that I will be in the Kremlin. In this way, the president has delivered a reality check to the many Western politicians and indeed Russian opposition activists who have been dreaming and deluding themselves, claiming that “if there is Putin, there is a problem; if there is no Putin, there is no problem.” The fact is, the president is here to stay.

Read more Putin in English: Listen to the Russian president’s words like never before (VIDEO)

4. It is now clear that after more than two years of a nuclear threat hanging over us all, the world is ready for real negotiations on this issue. However, there are doubts about whether talks will be successful. The most serious Western politician – and someone who actually understands the consequences of nuclear war – is US President Joe Biden. Sadly, he will be gone in a few months.  Neither Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump has the foreign policy credentials to even grasp the importance of this issue and the dangers involved.

5. The past years and months of the Ukraine conflict, the brutal sanctions, and the radical transformation of the driving forces of the Russian economy have clearly demonstrated that it is time for our own domestic public and political consciousness to decisively abandon the notion, once sown by the Polish/American thinker Zbigniew Brzezinski, that Russia’s greatness rests on its unity with Ukraine. If the country is torn out of Moscow’s sphere of influence, Russia’s status as a great power will come to an end, he warned.

But that was then, and this is now. Today it is obvious that Russia’s place in the world is guaranteed regardless of the degree of proximity to any country or group of countries. Liberation from speculative constructs in the minds of influential ideologues is a powerful factor in normalizing the development process and assessing fundamental risks and opportunities. Russia can be a great and important power regardless of the degree of integration with other states. The greatness of a country is measured by the level of well-being and opportunities of its citizens, by achievements in health care, education, science, and technology.

6. Talking about the Russian economy, we should keep in mind one simple detail: the federal budget submitted to the State Duma (parliament) is based on an oil price of $60 per barrel. According to forecasts, the average annual oil price in 2025 will be $69 per barrel. This is a very high level of conservatism, realism, and sober calculation on the part of the Mikhail Mishustin government. The Russian economy is expected to remain manageable and the pace of development will be sufficient to meet the challenges we face. The obvious structural and technological difficulties will not be decisive in 2025. At this level of industrial development, a balanced budget and currency stability are crucial.

7. Today’s fighting makes it clear that the main goal of Russian troops on the ground is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. When listing his objectives, Putin increasingly uses the following words: the liberation of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and Novorossiya. It can be assumed that Novorossiya is only part of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. The main issue here is the land connection with Crimea. If my observations are correct, it is possible to draw a more concrete picture that will allow us to say that the military operation has been completed and its goals have been achieved.

Read more ‘New Axis of influence’: Is an alliance between Russia and Iran possible?

8. It should be stressed that in recent months there has been a clear change in the Russian leadership’s assessment of the nature of Ukrainian statehood. This is the main difference from February 2022. Today, Moscow recognizes that a significant number of Ukrainians voted for the current government, consider themselves Ukrainians, and do not want to see a future with Russia. In this way, the Kremlin recognizes the state of Ukraine. When the West promotes the narrative that Moscow wants to destroy Ukraine as a state, this is an obvious contradiction, given today’s realities. Moreover, it is this narrative that allows Western politicians to claim that by destroying Ukraine, Russia will move further into Europe – into Poland and the Baltic states.

9. Speaking of possible negotiations, the West fails to mention the question of the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky’s signature in Putin’s eyes. They say it is obvious because Zelensky is flying around the world with his ‘peace plan’. I would warn Western partners against simplistic interpretations of Putin’s remarks and his concern that the Ukrainian Constitutional Court might later rule that Zelensky had not properly renewed his credentials and that his signature was therefore invalid. ‘Cheated, deceived, hoodwinked, and then deceived again’ is something that won’t be allowed to happen again. The level of mutual trust is not even at zero. Total mistrust now makes it necessary to have full negotiating powers in terms of the legal certainty available.

10. It seems that the issue of a new international order that provides equal security for states is equally relevant today for the critical majority of countries in the world – in the West as well as in the East. The main question is whether it will be possible to create a new international legal framework for peaceful coexistence. Let us remember that the worlds of Versailles and Yalta-Potsdam were born on the ruins of the catastrophes of the First and Second World Wars. The situation is different now. But hopefully humanity has learned something.

*** konec https://www.rt.com/russia/605836-putin-russia-west-countries/ ***

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