{"id":4775,"date":"2025-03-20T11:35:45","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T10:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/?p=4775"},"modified":"2025-03-20T11:38:41","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T10:38:41","slug":"rusija-in-zda-se-ze-zelo-dolgo-nista-pogajali-s-taksno-miselnostjo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/2025\/03\/20\/rusija-in-zda-se-ze-zelo-dolgo-nista-pogajali-s-taksno-miselnostjo\/","title":{"rendered":"RUSIJA IN ZDA SE \u017dE ZELO DOLGO NISTA POGAJALI S TAK\u0160NO MISELNOSTJO \ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddee"},"content":{"rendered":"

19 mar, 2025 14:15<\/em><\/p>\n

Ivan Timofejev: Tukaj je razlog, zakaj se Trump s Putinom pogovarja o miru<\/h4>\n
Okno za mir v Ukrajini je odprto – toda kako dolgo?<\/h6>\n

Avtor: Ivan Timofejev, programski direktor kluba Valdaj.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"
Russian President Vladimir Putin. \u00a9 Sputnik\/Ilya Pitalev<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Torkovi pogovori med ruskim predsednikom Vladimirjem Putinom in ameri\u0161kim predsednikom Donaldom Trumpom so pomenili premik k re\u0161itvi konflikta v Ukrajini. Vendar so rezultati zaradi \u0161tevilnih nere\u0161enih vpra\u0161anj \u0161e vedno nejasni, zato se lahko vsak trenutek zgodi nazadovanje.<\/p>\n

Pomanjkljivosti v evropskem varnostnem sistemu bodo \u0161e dolgo ogro\u017eale mo\u017enosti za normalizacijo. Kljub temu je prilo\u017enost za dosego miru \u0161e vedno odprta. Motivacijo za izkori\u0161\u010danje teh okoli\u0161\u010din oblikujejo rezultati, ki jih je Rusija doslej dosegla v svoji voja\u0161ki operaciji, ter mo\u017eni scenariji, ki bi se lahko razvili za obe strani, \u010de bi se konflikt nadaljeval.<\/p>\n

Med klju\u010dnimi rezultati lahko omenimo pripravljenost Rusije, da uporabi silo za obrambo svojih interesov v Evropi. Tri desetletja po koncu hladne vojne je bila sposobnost Moskve, da svoje interese za\u0161\u010diti s silo, pogosto zavra\u010dana. Voja\u0161ka operacija v Ukrajini je to napa\u010dno prepri\u010danje odpravila. Pokazala je, da so se varnostni odnosi z Zahodom tako zapletli, da se je z vidika Rusije zdelo, da druge mo\u017enosti ni. Postalo je jasno, da sta uporaba sile in obse\u017een spopad v Evropi realni mo\u017enosti, zato zahtev in skrbi Moskve ni bilo mogo\u010de odmisliti z nejasnimi zagotovili. Rusija je za obrambo svojih temeljnih varnostnih interesov pripravljena utrpeti velike izgube in prevzeti velika tveganja. Ni se pripravljena umakniti, tudi \u010de bi si s tem lahko re\u0161ila obraz.<\/p>\n

Na podro\u010dju diplomacije je opazno, da nezahodne dr\u017eave niso oblikovale ve\u010djih protiruskih koalicij. Zahodni blok, ki je zdru\u017een proti Rusiji, ni uspel pritegniti dodatnih akterjev. Kitajska, Indija, Brazilija, Ju\u017enoafri\u0161ka republika – in druge dr\u017eave – so se distancirale od politike sankcij. \u010ceprav so podjetja v teh dr\u017eavah previdna zaradi sekundarnih sankcij, ki bi jih lahko uvedle ZDA, in niso vedno pripravljena sodelovati z na\u0161o dr\u017eavo, se njihove vlade izogibajo uvedbi protiruskih ukrepov.<\/p>\n

Trgovina s \u0161tevilnimi dr\u017eavami globalnega juga se je pove\u010dala. Te dr\u017eave niso zavzele proruskega stali\u0161\u010da niti niso oblikovale enotne protizahodne fronte. Vendar pa so se razprave o diverzifikaciji svetovnih finan\u010dnih, trgovinskih in politi\u010dnih institucij precej raz\u0161irile. Na koncu je odpornost zahodne koalicije za\u010dela slabeti. Zdi se, da je nova ameri\u0161ka administracija spoznala, da je konflikt pri\u0161el v slepo ulico, in sprejela preventivne ukrepe za njegovo kon\u010danje.<\/p>\n

Med diplomatskimi rezultati lahko omenimo sposobnost Moskve, da zadr\u017ei stopnjevanje voja\u0161ke podpore Ukrajini. V dalj\u0161em \u010dasovnem obdobju so bile ruske \u201erde\u010de \u010drte\u201c pogosto prekora\u010dene, saj si je Rusija prizadevala ustaviti nara\u0161\u010dajo\u010do dobavo oro\u017eja Ukrajini. Te dobave so se pove\u010dale, oboro\u017eitveni sistemi pa so postali bolj daljnose\u017eni in smrtonosni. Spremembe v ruski jedrski doktrini in namestitev nove rakete srednjega dosega z nejedrsko konfiguracijo so bile klju\u010dni odvra\u010dilni signal proti morebitni mno\u017ei\u010dni uporabi zahodnih manevrirnih raket in drugih oboro\u017eitvenih sistemov s strani Ukrajine.<\/p>\n

Drug pomemben rezultat je bila zmo\u017enost sodelovanja v obse\u017enem spopadu z nasprotnikom, ki je prejel znatno zahodno podporo v obliki oro\u017eja, obve\u0161\u010devalnih podatkov in finan\u010dnih sredstev. Ruski obrambni industriji je uspelo ohraniti visok tempo in obseg delovanja ter se hitro prilagajati novim izzivom, ki jih prina\u0161a napredek na podro\u010dju voja\u0161ke tehnologije, vklju\u010dno s proizvodnjo in uporabo brezpilotnih letal. Hkrati je Moskva pri svojih voja\u0161kih akcijah v bistvu ohranila ekspedicijski pristop, pri \u010demer se je izogibala obse\u017eni mobilizaciji in se namesto tega zana\u0161ala na voja\u0161ke prostovoljce in pogodbene vojake. Sposobnost izvajanja obse\u017enih in trajnih voja\u0161kih operacij s profesionalno vojsko, ki ni vpoklicana, je bil klju\u010dni vmesni dose\u017eek.<\/p>\n

Opazna je tudi odpornost ruskega gospodarstva med soo\u010danjem s kolektivnim Zahodom. Njegova globoka vklju\u010denost v globalna omre\u017eja, odvisnost od zahodnih dobavnih verig, finan\u010dnih institucij in regulativnih okvirov so v lu\u010di morebitnih obse\u017enih zahodnih sankcij povzro\u010dili precej\u0161nja tveganja. Tak\u0161ne sankcije so bile uvedene takoj po za\u010detku konflikta in so se od takrat \u0161e okrepile. Proti Rusiji so bile uporabljene skoraj vse vrste omejitev, vklju\u010dno z blokirnimi finan\u010dnimi ukrepi, nadzorom izvoza, prepovedjo uvoza in drugimi. Prijateljske dr\u017eave, ki sodelujejo z Rusijo, se soo\u010dajo s tveganjem sekundarnih sankcij. Kljub temu je presenetljivo, da se je Rusija izognila kakr\u0161ni koli ve\u010dji finan\u010dni ali gospodarski krizi. Jasno je, da je gospodarstvo utrpelo izgube in \u0161kodo, kar so ob\u010dutili tudi navadni dr\u017eavljani. Vendar pa je bila Rusija glede na zgodovinske standarde sposobna zelo hitro prestrukturirati trgovinske mre\u017ee, trge in uvozne vire.<\/p>\n

Poleg gospodarstva je tudi politi\u010dni sistem pokazal izjemno odpornost. Nasprotniki Moskve so ra\u010dunali na hitro spremembo re\u017eima in razkol med elitami, vendar se to ni zgodilo. Niti ideolo\u0161kim nasprotnikom niti radikalnim privr\u017eencem ni uspelo destabilizirati politi\u010dnega sistema dr\u017eave. \u010ceprav je bil v vojnih razmerah uveden stro\u017eji red, se je dr\u017eavi uspelo izogniti zdrsu v totalitarni model, za katerega je zna\u010dilen pretiran in demoralizirajo\u010d nadzor. Dru\u017eba je pokazala odpornost v ekstremnih razmerah in se je po za\u010detnem obdobju zmede hitro prilagodila. Visoka \u010dlove\u0161ka cena voja\u0161kih ukrepov, gospodarskih izzivov, vklju\u010dno z inflacijo, in drugih sprememb ni privedla do ve\u010djih dezintegracijskih procesov. Javno razpolo\u017eenje v zvezi s konfliktom ostaja me\u0161ano, vendar ni kriti\u010dno razdelilo dru\u017ebe.<\/p>\n

Z voja\u0161kega vidika so nekateri neposredni rezultati ruske voja\u0161ke operacije iz\u010drpavanje ukrajinskega voja\u0161kega potenciala (kljub znatni zahodni podpori), omejevanje morebitnih protinapadov in nadzor nad ve\u010d strate\u0161ko pomembnimi lokacijami. Zdi se, da Moskva razmi\u0161lja o mo\u017enosti nadaljevanja sovra\u017enosti in da ima za to potrebna sredstva.<\/p>\n

Po drugi strani pa je mogo\u010de, da s podalj\u0161evanjem konflikta ne bo mogo\u010de dose\u010di bistvenih voja\u0161kih in politi\u010dnih koristi. Nadaljevanje spopadov bi bilo smiselno le, \u010de klju\u010dne zahteve Rusije, ki so bile prvotno dolo\u010dene med pogajanji v Istanbulu leta 2022, ostanejo neizpolnjene. Vendar se tudi nova ameri\u0161ka administracija zaveda, da podalj\u0161evanje konflikta predstavlja precej\u0161nje tveganje. Poleg mo\u017enosti nadaljevanja ruske ofenzive obstajajo tudi pomisleki glede nadaljnjega iz\u010drpavanja voja\u0161kih zalog in ogromnih finan\u010dnih stro\u0161kov brez jasnih mo\u017enosti za poraz Rusije. Navsezadnje sedanji rezultati in omejitve spodbujajo tako Washington kot Moskvo, da razmislita o mirni re\u0161itvi. Pomembno je, da imata obe strani \u0161e vedno dovolj sredstev za nadaljevanje spora. Vsak od udele\u017eencev za pogajalsko mizo ima mo\u010dna stali\u0161\u010da; nobena stran se ne pogaja s \u0161ibkega polo\u017eaja. Vsaka stran razume svoje interese in je pripravljena razpravljati o njih. Rusija in ZDA se \u017ee zelo dolgo nista pogajali s tak\u0161no miselnostjo.<\/p>\n

Vir: https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/614497-ivan-timofeev-trump-putin-call\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

*** Prevod www.DeepL.com\/Translator<\/a> (free version) ***<\/p>\n

Originalni prispevek (\u010de vir ni na voljo):<\/p>\n

\n

19 Mar, 2025 14:15<\/em><\/p>\n

Ivan Timofeev: Here\u2019s why Trump is talking peace with Putin<\/h4>\n
The window for peace in Ukraine is open \u2013 but for how long?<\/h6>\n

By Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"
Russian President Vladimir Putin. \u00a9 Sputnik\/Ilya Pitalev<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tuesday’s talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump have marked a shift towards the resolution of the Ukraine conflict. However, given the number of unresolved issues, the results are still unclear and a setback could occur at any moment.<\/p>\n

The flaws in the European security system will continue to jeopardize prospects for normalization for a long time. Nonetheless, the window of opportunity for achieving peace is still open. The motivation to leverage these circumstances is shaped by the results that Russia has achieved in its military operation so far, as well as the potential scenarios that could unfold for both sides if the conflict continues.<\/p>\n

Among the key results, we may note Russia\u2019s readiness to use force to defend its interests in Europe. For three decades following the conclusion of the Cold War, Moscow\u2019s ability to protect its interests using force was often dismissed. The military operation in Ukraine put an end to this misconception. It has demonstrated that security relations with the West had become so complicated that, from Russia\u2019s perspective, there appeared to be no other option. It became clear that the use of force and a large-scale conflict in Europe were real possibilities, so Moscow\u2019s demands and concerns couldn\u2019t be brushed aside with vague reassurances. Russia is willing to incur significant losses and take substantial risks in order to defend its fundamental security interests. It is not willing to back away, even if it can save face by doing so.<\/p>\n

In the field of diplomacy, it\u2019s notable that the non-Western countries have not formed any major anti-Russia coalitions. The Western bloc, united against Russia, has failed to pull in additional players. China, India, Brazil, South Africa \u2013 and others \u2013 have distanced themselves from sanctions policies. While businesses in these nations are wary of the secondary sanctions that could be imposed by the US and are not always eager to engage with our country, their governments have avoided imposing anti-Russia measures.<\/p>\n

Trade with many nations in the Global South has surged. These countries have neither adopted a pro-Russian stance, nor formed a unified anti-Western front. However, discussions about diversifying global finance, trade, and political institutions have gained considerable traction. Ultimately, the resilience of the Western coalition has begun to falter. The new US administration seems to have recognized that the conflict has reached a dead end and has taken preemptive steps to end it.<\/p>\n

Among the diplomatic outcomes, we may note Moscow\u2019s ability to contain the escalation of military support for Ukraine. For an extended period of time, Russia\u2019s \u2018red lines\u2019 were often crossed, as it struggled to halt increasing weapons supplies to Ukraine. These deliveries increased, with weapons systems becoming more long-range and lethal. Changes in Russia\u2019s nuclear doctrine and the deployment of a new medium-range missile with a non-nuclear configuration have provided a crucial deterrent signal against the potential mass use of Western cruise missiles and other weapons systems by Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Another significant outcome has been the ability to engage in a large-scale conflict with an opponent that has received substantial Western support in the form of weapons, intelligence, and funding. Russia\u2019s defense industry has managed to maintain a high pace and scale of operations, quickly adapting to the new challenges posed by advancements in military technology, including the production and use of drones. At the same time, Moscow has essentially maintained an expeditionary approach in its military actions, avoiding extensive mobilization and instead relying on military volunteers and contract soldiers. The ability to conduct a large-scale and sustained military operation with a professional, rather than conscripted army has been a key interim achievement.<\/p>\n

The resilience of the Russian economy amid its confrontation with the collective West is also notable. Its deep integration into global networks, its reliance on Western supply chains, financial institutions, and regulatory frameworks had created significant risks in light of potential large-scale Western sanctions. Such sanctions were imposed immediately after the start of the conflict and have intensified since. Nearly all kinds of restrictions have been employed against Russia, including blocking financial measures, export controls, import bans, and more. Friendly countries that partner with Russia face risks of secondary sanctions. Nevertheless, remarkably, Russia has avoided any significant financial or economic crisis. Clearly, the economy has suffered losses and damage, and this was felt by ordinary citizens. But Russia was able to restructure trade networks, markets, and import sources very quickly by historical standards.<\/p>\n

In addition to the economy, the political system has also shown remarkable resilience. Moscow\u2019s opponents had counted on a swift regime change and a split among the elites, but none of this happened. Neither ideological adversaries nor radical supporters were able to destabilize the country\u2019s political system. While stricter order has been imposed amid wartime conditions, the country has managed to avoid sliding into a totalitarian model characterized by excessive and demoralizing control. Society has demonstrated resilience in extreme conditions, and has quickly adapted following an initial period of confusion. The high human cost of military actions, economic challenges, including inflation, and other changes has not led to major disintegration processes. Public sentiment regarding the conflict remains mixed, but it hasn\u2019t divided society in a critical way.<\/p>\n

In military terms, some of the direct results of Russia\u2019s military operation include the depletion of Ukraine\u2019s military potential (despite substantial Western support), the containment of possible counter attacks, and control over several strategically important locations. It seems that Moscow is considering the possibility of continuing hostilities, and has the necessary resources for it.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, there may be no substantial military and political gains to be had by prolonging the conflict. Continued fighting would only make sense if Russia\u2019s key demands \u2013 initially laid out during the negotiations in Istanbul back in 2022 \u2013 remain unmet. However, the new US administration also recognizes that dragging out the conflict poses significant risks. Beyond the possibility of a continued Russian offensive, there are concerns about further depleting military stockpiles and incurring enormous financial costs without clear prospects for defeating Russia. Ultimately, the current results and limitations create incentives for both Washington and Moscow to consider a peaceful resolution. Notably, both sides still possess the resources to continue the conflict. The players at the negotiating table each hold strong positions; neither side is negotiating from a weak position. Each side understands their interests and is willing to discuss them. It\u2019s been a very long time since Russia and the US engaged in negotiations with such a mindset.<\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Torkovi pogovori med ruskim predsednikom Vladimirjem Putinom in ameri\u0161kim predsednikom Donaldom Trumpom so pomenili premik k re\u0161itvi konflikta v Ukrajini. Vendar so rezultati zaradi \u0161tevilnih nere\u0161enih vpra\u0161anj \u0161e vedno nejasni, zato se lahko vsak trenutek zgodi nazadovanje.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4779,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politika"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4775"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4775\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4784,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4775\/revisions\/4784"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/delinaprej.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}